Bitcoin Price Action Mirrors 2019 "Xi Pump" – Are New Lows on the Horizon?

Bitcoin's recent surge to $95,000 has many analysts drawing comparisons to the so-called "Xi pump" of 2019, sparking concerns about whether the cryptocurrency is heading toward new lows. A significant weekend rally briefly pushed Bitcoin's price above the $90,000 mark, a level not seen since November 2024. This upward movement came on the heels of a notable announcement from former U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the establishment of a crypto strategic reserve, temporarily reigniting bullish sentiment in the market.

Despite February’s monthly candle closing at $84,299, Bitcoin's weekly close showed a surprising surge, forming a doji candle and ending at $94,222. This price action tested the $95,000 resistance level once again. However, some analysts remain cautious, drawing parallels between this rally and the 2019 "Xi pump" and warning that a similar market correction could be imminent.

The 2019 "Xi Pump" and Its Aftermath

In 2019, Bitcoin endured a prolonged bearish period from June to October. During this time, market sentiment was extremely low, and Bitcoin's price fluctuated under $10,000. However, on October 25, China’s President Xi Jinping made a groundbreaking announcement endorsing blockchain technology, which triggered a sharp rally in Bitcoin's price. This momentary surge, dubbed the "Xi pump," was short-lived. In the days that followed, China imposed harsh regulations and crackdowns on crypto assets, including mining, which sent Bitcoin prices tumbling back down, reaching new lows within 30 days.

The sudden shift in sentiment, followed by harsh regulatory actions, raised concerns about the sustainability of such price movements.

Parallels Between the "Xi Pump" and Current Market Conditions

Crypto analyst "Cold Blooded Shiller" has drawn striking similarities between the 2019 "Xi pump" and the current rally, now being referred to as the "Trump pump." According to the analyst, rallies driven by sentiment alone are often short-lived, as markets tend to correct swiftly and return to their previous trend.

As illustrated in the chart, the price movements during both periods show similar patterns. In 2019, Bitcoin saw a retest of support levels below $10,000, while in 2025, the price is retesting levels below $95,000. In both instances, Bitcoin eventually formed new lows within 30 days after the initial price surge. The analyst suggests that traders who were active during the 2019 rally were quick to recognize the "Xi pump" as a short squeeze and capitalized on the market’s inevitable correction by entering short positions.

A Critical Week Ahead for Bitcoin Bulls

Magus, a prominent crypto trader, echoed similar caution, pointing out that Bitcoin’s bullish momentum will need to prove itself in the coming week. To confirm a sustainable rally, bulls will need to re-accept key levels, including the value area high (VAH) at $103,000 and the value area low (VAL) at $91,000. The VAH and VAL represent the range in which the majority of trading volume occurred since November 2024, providing crucial support and resistance levels for traders.

However, Magus remains wary of a repeat of the "Xi pump," suggesting that the current price movement may be an overreaction fueled by sentiment rather than solid market fundamentals. "This is a textbook swing setup for me normally, but if you've been around long enough, you remember the 'Xi pump,'" said Magus, emphasizing that the market could easily see a swift reversal if the bullish sentiment fades.

Bitcoin in Distribution, Not Accumulation

Data from Glassnode further supports the cautious outlook, showing that Bitcoin remains in a distribution phase rather than an accumulation phase. Short-term holders (STH) saw their cost basis dip below 1 as Bitcoin's price briefly rose above $92,700, indicating that many are still holding at breakeven levels, without substantial profits. Additionally, Glassnode reported that Bitcoin’s accumulation trend score has been below 0.5 for 58 consecutive days, signaling a prolonged period of net distribution. In this phase, investors typically take profits, which often coincides with market corrections.

Moreover, Glassnode noted that accumulation and distribution phases tend to alternate in 57-65 day windows. With the latest trend score reading at 0.9, large entities are still in a net distribution phase, and there has been no confirmed shift to accumulation. This lack of significant buying pressure suggests that Bitcoin’s recent rally may not be underpinned by strong institutional support, further fueling concerns that the market is still in a fragile state.

Conclusion: Are New Bitcoin Lows Coming?

While Bitcoin's recent price action has reignited hope among bulls, the market remains wary of repeating the pattern seen during the 2019 "Xi pump." Analysts caution that Bitcoin's rally could fizzle out, especially if it fails to break key resistance levels or if sentiment shifts once again. Given the ongoing distribution phase and the fragile position of short-term holders, Bitcoin could face further volatility in the coming weeks.

As always, investors should remain vigilant and consider the possibility of new lows on the horizon, especially if market sentiment proves to be short-lived. Time will tell whether this rally is the beginning of a new bullish cycle or just another temporary blip before the next correction.