Bitcoin ‘Power Law’ Model Projects $200K BTC Price by End of 2025

Bitcoin’s remarkable rally continues to capture global attention, with new models forecasting even more ambitious highs ahead. According to several top analysts, Bitcoin’s current price behavior aligns with historical trends that suggest a run toward $130,000, $163,000, and possibly as high as $200,000 by Q4 2025.

recently posted its best weekly performance of the year, gaining 11% and climbing back to $95,000 on April 25, marking its highest price since February 24.

The rally appears to be following predictable long-term patterns based on power-law modeling — a framework grounded in Bitcoin’s network growth, which adheres to Metcalfe’s Law: the idea that the value of a network scales with the square of its number of users.

Bitcoin’s Power Law and Quantile Models Show Room for Major Growth

Sina, co-founder of 21st Capital, highlighted that Bitcoin has successfully reclaimed its power-law price trajectory. His Bitcoin Quantile Model indicates that Bitcoin is currently in a “Transition” phase, characterized by steady accumulation.

As Bitcoin moves deeper into the “Acceleration” zone, key upside price targets for the next phases of the bull market include $106,000, $130,000, and $163,000 — potentially within the next few months.

Meanwhile, another respected pseudonymous analyst, apsk32, projects an even more explosive move. Using power curve time contours — an overlay of Bitcoin’s performance across past four-year cycles (2013, 2017, 2021, and now 2025) — apsk32 suggests Bitcoin could surge beyond $200,000 before the end of 2025.

The analysis finds that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle structure remains intact and points to Q3 and Q4 of 2025 as the most likely windows for a parabolic rally.

“Looking at two-year segments centered today, 4, 8, and 12 years ago, price scaling performed using the power curve trendline. Expecting $200,000+ Bitcoin in Q4. Gold suggests we could go significantly higher,” apsk32 said.

Gold’s Lead Over Bitcoin Could Flip Again

Adding to Bitcoin’s bullish outlook is its historical relationship with gold. Since early 2024, both assets have reached record highs but have taken turns outperforming each other. Gold led the market rally through Q3 2024, but Bitcoin reclaimed the spotlight later that year, leading until March 2025.

As of April 2025, gold has pulled back by 6%, while Bitcoin has gained 11%, suggesting Bitcoin may once again be positioned to lead risk assets higher. Analysts note that Bitcoin often follows gold’s directional moves with a lag of 100–150 days, implying that the current cycle may have plenty of momentum left.

Meanwhile, macroeconomic factors are reinforcing Bitcoin’s bullish setup. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) recently dropped to a three-year low on April 21. Historically, multi-year DXY lows have triggered major Bitcoin bull runs, and crypto analyst Venture Founder emphasized:

“Traditionally, DXY going down is very bullish for Bitcoin. We now have a massive bearish divergence for DXY, suggesting it could go to 90. The last two times this happened triggered parabolic Bitcoin bull runs lasting 12 months.”

With Bitcoin reclaiming its power-law price and external indicators like gold and the DXY flashing green lights, multiple models converge on one conclusion: the 2025 bull market could still have its most explosive phase ahead.