Bitcoin Options Market Structure Points to Possible $60K Retest in February

Key Takeaways

• Professional traders are paying a 13% premium for downside protection as Bitcoin struggles to hold above $66,000.

• Nearly $910 million in spot Bitcoin ETF outflows since Feb. 11 signal rising institutional caution.

• Options positioning suggests traders are preparing for a potential $60,000 retest rather than betting on a quick rebound above $70,000.

Bitcoin Rejection at $71K Triggers Defensive Positioning

Bitcoin entered a renewed downtrend after facing rejection near $71,000 on Sunday. While bulls have successfully defended the $66,000 support zone throughout the week, the derivatives market tells a more cautious story.

Despite resilience in traditional markets — with gold near record levels and equities holding firm — crypto traders appear to be bracing for additional downside.

At the time of writing, BTC trades near $67,700, but professional positioning reflects growing fear rather than confidence in a breakout.

Options Market Signals Strong Bearish Bias

On the derivatives exchange Deribit, the two-month options delta skew shows put (sell) options trading at a 13% premium over call (buy) options.

Under neutral conditions, the delta skew typically ranges between –6% and +6%, signaling balanced demand. Sustained readings above 10% indicate that traders are aggressively paying up for downside protection.

Data from Laevitas shows that the most traded strategies over the past 48 hours include:

• Bear diagonal spreads – Lower-cost bearish positioning via time decay advantage

• Short straddles – Profiting from low volatility if price stagnates

• Short risk reversals – Downside exposure with minimal upfront cost but high upside risk

These strategies collectively suggest that professionals are positioning for either limited upside or renewed downward pressure toward $60,000.

ETF Outflows Add to Market Discontent

Institutional demand remains soft.

Since Feb. 11, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded approximately $910 million in outflows, reinforcing the cautious tone in derivatives markets.

These ETF flows serve as a key proxy for institutional appetite. The magnitude of withdrawals likely caught bulls off guard — particularly considering Bitcoin is still trading roughly 47% below its all-time high, while other asset classes show relative strength:

• Gold has climbed sharply in recent months

• The S&P 500 remains within 2% of record highs

The divergence suggests that current risk aversion is crypto-specific, not macro-driven.

BTC two-month options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: laevitas.ch

Stablecoin Premium Shows Moderate Capital Outflows

Another gauge of sentiment is stablecoin demand in China.

Under neutral conditions, stablecoins typically trade at a 0.5%–1% premium over the USD/CNY exchange rate due to FX friction and capital controls. Currently, stablecoins trade at a 0.2% discount, indicating moderate outflows — though this is an improvement from Monday’s 1.4% discount.

This suggests investors are not panic-selling, but neither are they aggressively accumulating.

Why $60K Is Now the Key Level

Bitcoin’s sharp drop to $60,200 on Feb. 6 remains a psychological reference point for traders. Until a clear catalyst explains that crash — or a strong reversal narrative emerges — professionals appear reluctant to deploy bullish leverage.

The current structure indicates:

• Heavy demand for downside hedging

• ETF outflows pressuring sentiment

• Neutral-to-bearish volatility positioning

Unless BTC can reclaim and sustain levels above $70,000, the path of least resistance may remain tilted toward a $60,000 retest before stronger recovery momentum builds.

See all our insights: Bitcoin World News