Bitcoin Nears $100K as Realized Cap Hits Record High, Signaling Start of New Bull Cycle

Bitcoin’s Return to $100K Signals Potential Start of New Bull Cycle, Says On-Chain Data

Bitcoin is once again approaching the psychological $100,000 threshold, driven by deepening investor conviction, sustained capital inflows, and a new all-time high in its realized market capitalization. On-chain analysis suggests the market may be laying the groundwork for a significant and sustained price breakout — potentially marking the early stages of a new bull cycle.

Realized Cap Hits Record $891 Billion

As of May 7, Bitcoin’s realized cap — a metric that values each coin based on the price at which it last moved on-chain — has climbed to a new record high of $891 billion, according to data from CryptoQuant. This metric differs from standard market cap by focusing on actual investor cost basis rather than current market prices, offering deeper insight into capital inflow and market conviction.

Bitcoin realized cap. Source: CryptoQuant

“The continued uptrend in realized cap highlights increasing investor commitment,” wrote CryptoQuant contributor Carmelo Alemán. “It’s not just a surge in capital, but a reflection of growing belief in Bitcoin’s long-term potential as a financial asset.”

This steady growth in realized cap has been in place since mid-April and is being interpreted by analysts as a sign of a structurally strengthening bull market.

Buyers Absorbing Profit-Taking Pressure

Despite concerns over profit-taking from both long-term (LTH) and short-term holders (STH), daily net inflows of capital remain strong, averaging around $1 billion. This dynamic — where new buyers continue to absorb selling pressure — indicates healthy market demand at current levels.

In its latest “The Week Onchain” newsletter, blockchain analytics firm Glassnode highlighted that the market is in a balanced state at the $100K level, with evidence of both strong demand and profit realization.

Bitcoin net realized profit/loss (screenshot). Source: Glassnode

“A surge in profit-taking can be observed, but it’s being matched by robust buying activity,” Glassnode noted. “This points to a wave of demand capable of absorbing supply, reinforcing the market’s upward trajectory.”

Sustained Inflows Since Late 2023 Fuel Bullish Outlook

Importantly, this profit-driven environment is not new. According to Glassnode, capital inflows have outpaced outflows since October 2023, suggesting a long-term bullish trend is already in play.

“This 18-month regime of consistent capital influx supports the notion of a structurally bullish market,” the report emphasized.

Conclusion

With Bitcoin’s realized cap at historic highs and capital inflows remaining steady despite active profit-taking, market analysts suggest that Bitcoin is entering a new phase of growth. If current trends persist, the market could be witnessing the birth of a fresh bull cycle, with Bitcoin poised to firmly break past the $100,000 mark.