Bitcoin Options Signal Slim Odds of a $90K Rally by March as Macro Risks Mount

Bitcoin Drops to Multi-Month Lows as Risk Appetite Fades

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below the $63,000 mark on Thursday, touching its lowest level since November 2024. The move extends a sharp correction from late January, when BTC failed to hold above $90,500. Since then, prices have declined roughly 30%, reflecting a broader pullback in risk assets.

The downturn comes as investors react to a combination of disappointing US economic data, a softening equity market, and growing unease over the pace and scale of investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $64,700, but market sentiment remains cautious.

Options Market Prices in Only a 6% Chance of $90K

Derivatives data suggests traders see limited upside potential for Bitcoin in the near term. On Deribit, a March 27 call option granting the right to buy BTC at $90,000 was priced at just $522. Based on Black-Scholes modeling, that valuation implies a probability of less than 6% that Bitcoin reaches $90,000 by late March.

In contrast, downside protection remains in higher demand. A $50,000 put option for the same expiry traded at $1,380, pointing to roughly a 20% chance of a deeper drawdown over the coming weeks.

This skew highlights a market that remains defensive, with participants more focused on hedging losses than positioning for a sharp rebound.

Quantum Computing and Corporate Balance Sheets Add Pressure

Beyond macroeconomic concerns, structural risks are also weighing on crypto exposure. Some investors have reduced allocations due to long-term fears around quantum computing and its potential implications for blockchain security.

In mid-January, Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, removed Bitcoin from his model portfolio, citing the risk that advanced quantum systems could one day compromise private keys.

At the same time, attention has turned to companies that accumulated large Bitcoin positions using debt and equity financing. Strategy (MSTR), the largest publicly listed holder of on-chain BTC, recently saw its enterprise value fall to $53.3 billion, slightly below its estimated Bitcoin cost basis of $54.2 billion. Japan-based Metaplanet faced a similar imbalance, with a market valuation of $2.95 billion versus acquisition costs of $3.78 billion.

Investors worry that a prolonged downturn could force such firms to liquidate holdings to meet financial obligations, adding further selling pressure to the market.

Weak Jobs Data and AI Spending Concerns Fuel Risk Aversion

Broader market sentiment has deteriorated alongside troubling economic signals. US employers announced 108,435 layoffs in January, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas — a 118% increase year over year and the highest January figure since 2009.

Equity markets have also reacted negatively to signs that massive AI investments may take longer than expected to generate returns. Google recently disclosed that its capital expenditures could reach $180 billion in 2026, nearly double its 2025 spending. Qualcomm shares dropped 8% after the company issued weaker growth guidance, citing supply chain constraints tied to data center demand.

Even traditionally defensive assets have not been immune. Silver posted a 36% weekly decline after hitting a record high of $121.70 on Jan. 29. Bitcoin’s own 27% weekly drop mirrors losses seen across several major publicly traded firms, including PayPal, Robinhood, Thomson Reuters, and Applovin.

Outlook: A $90K Recovery Looks Unlikely in the Short Term

Bitcoin’s slide toward $62,300 underscores persistent uncertainty around US economic growth, employment trends, and the sustainability of AI-driven capital expenditure. With options markets assigning minimal probability to a sharp upside move, traders appear unconvinced that BTC can reclaim $90,000 by March.

Unless macro conditions improve or risk appetite returns decisively, the path of least resistance for Bitcoin may remain sideways to lower in the near term.

See all our insights: Bitcoin World News