Bitcoin Inflows to Binance Accelerate Ahead of CPI Report Amid Macro Uncertainty

Bitcoin Inflows to Binance Spike as Market Awaits CPI Data and Tariff Developments

Bitcoin (BTC) inflows into major crypto exchange Binance have seen a significant uptick over the past two weeks, as traders navigate rising macroeconomic uncertainty and anticipate the March U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. Analysts remain divided on whether this trend points to a coming sell-off or growing investor demand.

According to Maarten Regterschot, an on-chain analyst and contributor to CryptoQuant, Binance’s Bitcoin reserves grew by 22,106 BTC—worth approximately $1.82 billion—between late March and April 9. The platform now holds a total of 590,874 BTC.

“This shows a strong acceleration in BTC inflows to Binance. It’s likely that investors are actively moving funds to Binance due to the macro uncertainty and before the upcoming CPI announcement,” said Regterschot in an April 9 post.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $82,474, marking an 8.8% daily gain, according to CoinMarketCap. The price surge comes shortly after President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on “reciprocal tariffs” for all countries except China, which saw its rate raised to 125%.

Market Split: Sell-Off or Demand Surge?

Historically, spikes in crypto exchange inflows have been interpreted as precursors to selling pressure, especially during periods of uncertainty. When traders anticipate volatility or want to realize profits, they often transfer their assets onto exchanges, which can lead to short-term price corrections.

Binance’s Bitcoin Reserve has 590,874 Bitcoin. Source: CryptoQuant

However, not all analysts see the inflows as bearish.

Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal offered a more nuanced perspective:

“Large inflows could be a sign of selling, but it is a very fluid market. It is plausible that Binance is shifting assets into its hot wallets to meet heavy demand.”

He added that the next few days will be key to gauging market sentiment, particularly following Trump’s tariff decisions:

“The next few days are critical in understanding the appetite of the market for crypto after Trump’s climbdown on tariffs.”

Inflation Expectations: A Critical Catalyst

All eyes are now on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is scheduled to release the March CPI data on April 10. The inflation print is expected to shape the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook and, by extension, investor appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Crypto analyst Matthew Hyland predicted a positive outcome:

“The March CPI results will show inflation is crashing down, probably close to 2.5%. Another interesting day coming.”

Analyst Dyme echoed that sentiment, stating that a weaker-than-expected CPI print could trigger further bullish momentum:

“Lower than expected CPI print will send us higher.”

FactSet’s consensus estimates suggest a modest 0.1% month-over-month increase in prices for March. For context, February’s CPI came in at 3.1%, slightly below the 3.2% forecast, with a corresponding 0.1% dip in headline inflation.

Tariffs and Tensions Add to Market Complexity

Trump’s recent tariff pause, while positively impacting broader markets like the S&P 500, has done little to ease long-term concerns about U.S.-China trade tensions. By exempting all but China, the administration aims to penalize what it deems retaliatory economic behavior.

“Tensions between the U.S. and China remain a structural overhang,” noted Hundal, adding that macroeconomic conditions remain highly dynamic and sensitive to both fiscal policy and inflation trends.

As Bitcoin continues to respond to both global political moves and domestic economic data, the coming days are expected to set the tone for crypto markets moving deeper into Q2 2025.