Bitcoin ‘Never Crossed’ $100K When Adjusted for Inflation, Says Galaxy’s Alex Thorn
Bitcoin may have reached a nominal all-time high above $126,000 in October, but when adjusted for inflation, it never truly crossed the six-figure milestone, according to Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research, Alex Thorn.
“If you adjust the price of Bitcoin for inflation using 2020 dollars, BTC never crossed $100,000,” Thorn said on Tuesday.
“It actually topped at $99,848 in 2020 dollar terms, if you can believe it.”
Thorn explained that his calculation adjusts Bitcoin’s peak price incrementally using Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from 2020 through today, reflecting the steady decline in the U.S. dollar’s purchasing power.
Source (Alex Thorn on X)
How Inflation Changes Bitcoin’s Milestone
The CPI, published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, tracks inflation by measuring price changes across a basket of goods and services. In November, the agency reported CPI had risen 2.7% year-over-year, continuing to erode purchasing power.
Since 2020, the U.S. dollar has lost roughly 20% of its value, meaning $1 today buys only about 80% of what it did five years ago. According to CPI data, prices are now 1.25× higher than in 2020.
Inflation peaked above 9% in mid-2022 during the COVID-era supply shock and, despite easing, remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
Dollar Index Decline Fuels “Debasement Trade”
The weakening dollar has intensified the so-called “debasement trade,” where investors rotate into assets perceived as stores of value.
The U.S. Dollar Currency Index (DXY) — which tracks the dollar against a basket of major currencies — has fallen 11% year-to-date, declining to 97.8, according to TradingView data.
The index reached a three-year low of 96.3 in September and has trended downward since October 2022, reinforcing investor interest in hard assets like Bitcoin.
Why This Matters for Bitcoin Investors
While Bitcoin’s headline price suggests a historic breakout, inflation-adjusted figures show that its purchasing-power peak still fell just short of $100,000. The distinction highlights how macro conditions and currency debasement can distort nominal price milestones.
At the same time, persistent inflation and dollar weakness continue to strengthen Bitcoin’s role in portfolios positioned against fiat erosion — even if the real six-figure mark remains technically unmet.
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