Bitcoin’s Halloween Flush: $1 B Wiped Out — But Smart Money May Have Just Stepped In

What Happened

On the cusp of November, the crypto market took a serious tumble. Over the past 24 hours, more than $1 billion in crypto positions were liquidated — of which about $984 million came from long (bullish) positions. 

More refined data shows $966 million of the liquidations were longs and $99.6 million were shorts. 

Specifically for Bitcoin: long positions worth about $387 million were wiped out, while short positions suffered around $30.7 million.  

Coincidentally (or not), the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of approximately $490 million yesterday.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price slipped to around $106,400 (on notation of drops under $107 000). 

In short: heavy leverage, large forced exits, and institutional liquidity withdrawing all at once.

Why It Happened

1. Excessive Leverage + Structural Risk

When many traders hold highly leveraged long positions, even moderate price dips trigger forced exits (liquidations) that cascade further down. Here we saw just that: long liquidations dominating, suggesting a deleveraging event rather than a balanced market correction. The data: nearly 90% of liquidations were long positions. In other words: the market wasn’t just weak — it was overloaded on bullish risk.

2. Macro/Institutional Pressure

The backdrop matters. Investor sentiment is fragile. Part of the outflow from ETFs signals that institutional capital is stepping back (at least for now). The big outflows (~$490 M from BTC-ETFs) aren’t just retail panic — they suggest larger players are re-assessing.

 Also, broader markets (tech equities, risk assets) are under pressure, and crypto often gets swept up in that.

3. Timing & Liquidity Window

This isn’t a surprise downturn from nowhere — it is happening at the very end of October, a month historically bullish for crypto (“Uptober”). When that seasonal effect failed, this flush may have been accelerated by weaker-than-expected input (macro, institutional) and by leveraged longs getting caught.

Plus: Since so many positions were vulnerable, the moment the price ticked wrong the mechanical liquidation chain triggered.

Earlier this month, we analyzed the strong bullish momentum behind Bitcoin’s Uptober rally toward $120K.

Today’s $1 billion liquidation shows how quickly that optimism unwound as leveraged positions hit their limits.

Why It Matters

• Short-term pressure is real: With so many longs liquidated, price support is weaker. The next move could be either a sharp rebound (if buyers step in) or a deeper slide (if fear takes over).

• Institutional capital is on the fence: Outflows from ETFs signal that smart money isn’t at full throttle right now. That means if the “big money” doesn’t return, prices might lack upward momentum.

• Risk management spotlight: For individual traders and smaller funds, this event underscores that leverage can be a double-edge sword. It also raises questions about whether we’re entering a more conservative phase in crypto, where accumulation trumps short-term speculative betting.

• Forecast pivot zone: This moment could mark a transition — from “hoping for upside” to “waiting for base building.” If so, price moves over the next few days will matter more than usual.

The Real Truth (No Fluff)

Here’s where we call it straight:

• This is not yet the “top” of the market in a broad sense — but it could be the top of this hyper-leveraged cycle of fast bullish bets.

• The scale of liquidations tells us that the market was fragile — not robust. That doesn’t mean crypto is dead, but it does mean we need to shift our lens.

• The “smart money” might be stepping in, but cautiously. The ETF outflows show hesitation; if those flows reverse, we might see support. If they worsen, more downside lies ahead.

• For now: There’s a clear risk of further downside; equally, if the market stabilises and accumulation begins, we could see a rebound from this flush. The next 48–72 hours are important.

BitcoinWorld Forecast Line

If leveraged longs remain flushed and ETF flows stabilise, Bitcoin could hover in the $106,000–$110,000 zone over the next week, setting the stage for a recovery attempt. But if institutional outflows deepen or macro risk spikes, the next support zone near $100,000–$102,000 may come into view before clarity returns.

What to Keep an Eye On

• ETF flow data: Are outflows reversing? That would be a positive sign for buying pressure.

• Open interest & leverage metrics: If open interest remains low (often a sign of exhaustion), risk is reduced. If it spikes again, danger re-emerges.

• Macro signals: Fed commentary, equity market weakness, liquidity indicators — crypto is connected.

• Support & volume behavior: If Bitcoin holds ~$106k on decent volume and accumulation shows up (on-chain data), this flush could be a reset. If it breaks down with heavy volume, expect more pain.

See all our insights: Bitcoin World News