Is Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Broken? Analysts Debate What Comes Next

Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Faces Its Biggest Test Yet

Bitcoin’s long-observed four-year market cycle—historically driven by halving events—is under renewed scrutiny. In 2025, analysts are split on whether this model still applies, as institutional exchange-traded funds (ETFs), regulatory changes in the US, and shifting macroeconomic conditions reshape the crypto market.

The debate centers on whether Bitcoin’s price behavior still follows the familiar post-halving boom-and-bust pattern—or whether structural changes have permanently altered its trajectory.

What Is the Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle?

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is rooted in its halving mechanism, which cuts miner rewards in half roughly every four years, reducing the supply of new BTC entering circulation.

Historically, this has produced a recognizable pattern:

• Accumulation phase

• Post-halving bull run, often peaking around 12–18 months later

• Sharp correction

• Multi-year bear market

Supporters of the cycle theory argue that human behavior and market psychology reinforce this rhythm.

Why Some Analysts Say the Cycle Is Breaking Down

Several market observers believe 2025 marks a structural shift away from the traditional cycle.

Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph that the halving-driven model began to weaken this year. He attributed the change to persistent institutional demand, particularly from spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury buyers.

According to Ruck, these inflows have:

• Reduced volatility compared to past cycles

• Softened the severity of post-peak corrections

• Extended the broader bull market timeline

“While near-term consolidation is possible amid macro pressure, we expect the bull market to extend into 2026,” he said.

Institutions and ETFs Reshape Bitcoin’s Market Structure

Institutional adoption has become one of the strongest arguments against the four-year cycle model.

Earlier in December, Grayscale projected that Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high in the first half of 2026, citing:

• Currency debasement concern

• A more supportive US regulatory environment

• Sustained macro-driven demand

Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, went further, calling the cycle theory “no longer valid.” The bank revised its outlook, now forecasting Bitcoin at $150,000 by the end of 2026.

Prominent industry figures—including Cathie Wood (ARK Invest), Arthur Hayes (BitMEX), Ki Young Ju (CryptoQuant), Matt Hougan (Bitwise), Hunter Horsley, and Raoul Pal—have also argued that Bitcoin’s cycles are being replaced by longer, structurally driven trends.

Related macro outlook

Others Say the Cycle Is Still Intact

Not everyone is convinced the four-year cycle is dead.

Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, said Bitcoin entered a bear market in late October 2025, becoming one of the first major risk assets to reflect a slowing global economy.

Meanwhile, popular analyst Rekt Capital maintains that the cycle remains valid, though evolving.

“If BTC’s four-year cycle is ‘broken,’ it’s probably just leveling up,” he said on Dec. 20.

Some analysts argue that belief in the cycle itself becomes a self-fulfilling force, as traders sell in anticipation of a post-halving downturn—adding downward pressure regardless of fundamentals.

Expectations, Not Cycles, May Be the Real Problem

The creator of the Stock-to-Flow model, known as PlanB, suggested that recent selling pressure stems more from psychology than structural weakness.

He said much of the selling came from:

• Long-term holders shaken by the 2021 drawdown

• Traders expecting a bear market two years post-halving

Analyst Alex Wacy echoed this view, arguing that the cycle may still exist—but without the same emotional intensity.

“Altcoins bled. No euphoria. No altseason. Just boredom and pain,” he said.

“Cycles don’t always end. Sometimes they stretch.”

Conclusion: Broken Cycle or Evolving Market?

Whether Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is broken or simply evolving remains unresolved. What is clear is that institutional capital, ETFs, and macroeconomic forces now play a much larger role than in past cycles.

Instead of sharp booms and deep busts, Bitcoin may be entering a phase defined by:

• Longer trends

• Lower volatility

• Stronger structural demand

For investors, the key question may no longer be when the cycle ends, but how Bitcoin behaves in a market where cycles matter less than fundamentals.

See all our insights: Bitcoin World News