Bitcoin Faces Key Resistance Ahead of FOMC Meeting: Weekly Close Above $81K Crucial to Avoid Downside Risks

Bitcoin's price action is entering a critical phase as investors closely monitor the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for March 19. According to analysts, a weekly close above the key $81,000 level is crucial to mitigate further downside risks and avoid heightened volatility.

As of 9:33 a.m. UTC, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading above $83,748, after experiencing a 3% drop during the past week, according to data from Markets Pro. Analysts are now focusing on the weekly close to determine Bitcoin’s near-term direction. A failure to maintain levels above $81,000 could trigger a deeper correction, with support potentially testing the $76,000 region.

Bitcoin Faces Macro Risks and FOMC Uncertainty

Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, highlighted that Bitcoin’s price is at a critical juncture. He noted that holding above the $81,000 mark on a weekly close would demonstrate resilience. However, if Bitcoin’s price dips below the $76,000 level, it could invite further selling pressure from short-term traders. The market is increasingly cautious, with growing macroeconomic uncertainty stemming from global trade tariffs and potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy.

“The key level to watch for the weekly close is the $81,000 range,” Lee explained. “If Bitcoin can hold above that, it signals strength, but if it drops below $76,000, we could see additional selling pressure.”

The upcoming FOMC meeting adds another layer of uncertainty. The markets are largely expecting the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, with a 98% probability of no rate hike, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. However, any hawkish signals from the Fed could dampen investor sentiment across risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Even in the event of a dovish surprise, such as a rate cut, Bitcoin may not see an immediate boost, as investors remain cautious in light of broader macroeconomic challenges. The outcome of the FOMC meeting will likely influence Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory, as investor sentiment remains sensitive to any shifts in monetary policy.

Resistance at $85,000 Could Trigger Breakout

On the flip side, some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects. Enmanuel Cardozo, a market analyst at Brickken, sees potential for a breakout if Bitcoin can sustain a weekly close above $85,000. He notes that Bitcoin’s current trading range, between the $80,000 support and $85,000–$90,000 resistance, is pivotal. A break above the $85,000 level could signal the beginning of a strong upward movement, with Bitcoin potentially regaining investor optimism and sparking renewed bullish momentum.

Despite Bitcoin’s short-term price fluctuations, Cardozo believes that broader market factors could play a positive role in the asset’s long-term growth. In particular, regulatory developments surrounding former President Donald Trump’s Bitcoin reserve plan may provide a much-needed catalyst for Bitcoin adoption.

Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve Plan Gains Momentum

A significant development occurred on March 14, when U.S. Representative Byron Donalds introduced a bill that could solidify Trump’s proposed Bitcoin reserve as a permanent fixture in U.S. economic policy. The bill aims to prevent future administrations from dismantling the Bitcoin reserve through executive action.

If passed, the bill would ensure the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile, making them resistant to potential changes by future presidents. This bill requires at least 60 votes in the Senate and a House majority to pass, but with Republicans holding a majority in the Senate and the current political environment being more favorable to cryptocurrencies, the bill has a solid chance of advancing.

Should this legislation succeed, it could be a major milestone in Bitcoin's integration into the U.S. financial system, boosting market confidence and potentially driving further adoption.

Conclusion: Bitcoin’s Near-Term Outlook

With the FOMC meeting just days away and macroeconomic factors influencing investor sentiment, Bitcoin’s price action remains highly uncertain. The $81,000 level is pivotal for maintaining upward momentum and avoiding further downside risk. However, a close above $85,000 could ignite optimism and trigger a new phase of bullishness. Investors will also be keeping a close eye on regulatory developments, such as the Trump Bitcoin reserve plan, which could provide a longer-term boost to Bitcoin's adoption.

As always, Bitcoin investors should remain vigilant of potential market-moving news and adjust their strategies accordingly.