Bitcoin Eyes $100K Rally as Decoupling Signals Flash—But Risks Loom

Bitcoin’s Breakout Moment?

Bitcoin (BTC, $83,796 as of April 4, 2025) is flexing its independence, shrugging off market chaos sparked by President Donald Trump’s April 2 global tariff bombshell. While the S&P 500 cratered 10.65% this week and gold slid 4.8% from its $3,167 peak, BTC rebounded 4.5% from a $82,500 dip to top $84,700. This decoupling from traditional assets has traders buzzing: could $100,000 come faster than expected? “The ‘gold leads, Bitcoin follows’ trend is taking shape,” says market analyst MacroScope, pointing to a historical handoff that could catapult BTC into a new era of dominance.

Source: Cory Bates / X

Gold’s Cue, Bitcoin’s Surge

History offers clues. From late 2018 to mid-2019, gold climbed 15% while Bitcoin idled—then bam, BTC erupted, soaring 170% in early 2019 and 344% by late 2020. Today’s script feels familiar: gold’s recent high precedes Bitcoin’s resilience amid tariff tremors. “A reclaim of $100K would imply a handoff from gold to BTC,” MacroScope predicts, envisioning “huge outperformance” over gold and stocks. Alpine Fox founder Mike Alfred echoes this, citing a March 14 analysis where he pegged Bitcoin for a 10x edge over gold based on past cycles. If the pattern holds, $100K could be a pit stop, not the finish line.

BTC/USD vs. gold and S&P 500 daily performance chart. Source: TradingView

The Bearish Fractal Warning

Not so fast. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio (BTC/XAU) is flashing a red flag—a bearish fractal mirroring 2021. Back then, BTC/XAU tested its 50-week EMA support twice before crashing to the 200-week EMA, dragging Bitcoin’s USD price down with it. Now, it’s déjà vu:

BTC/USD vs. XAU/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

BTC/XAU teeters at the 50-EMA again. A breakdown could shove Bitcoin toward its 50-week EMA at $65,000—or, if macro gloom deepens, plunge below $20,000 to the 200-week EMA. “This fractal’s a bull trap warning,” one X trader quipped. A bounce here, though, could flip the script and keep the rally alive.

Source: Mike Alfred / X

Tariffs, Recession, and Fed Jitters

Fundamentals muddy the waters. Trump’s tariffs—10% globally, with 34% on China—threaten a trade war that could tip the U.S. into recession. Risk assets like Bitcoin historically stumble in downturns, and investors are edgy. On April 4, Fed Chair Jerome Powell poured cold water on rate-cut hopes, warning inflation’s “uneven” path means high rates might stick. “A prolonged tight policy squeezes BTC’s upside,” a market watcher noted. Still, bond traders via CME data bet on three cuts by September—liquidity that could juice Bitcoin if it lands.

BTC/XAU ratio two-week chart. Source: TradingView

Decoupling or Deception?

Bitcoin’s tariff defiance—outpacing gold and stocks—fuels the $100K hype, but it’s a tightrope walk. The gold-lead trend and MacroScope’s optimism clash with BTC/XAU’s bearish whispers and recession risks. “If tariffs spark chaos, BTC might not dodge the fallout,” an X post cautioned, nodding to the Nasdaq’s 1,060-point April 3 dive (see prior coverage). Traders are split: some see a decoupling rocket to $100K, others a trap to $65K or lower. With Powell’s hawkish stance and tariff tremors in play, Bitcoin’s next move hinges on whether bullish history repeats—or bearish reality bites.

BTC/USD 2W price chart. Source: TradingView