Bitcoin Dip Buyers Nibble at BTC Range Lows but Remain Risk-Off Until $90K Becomes Support

Bitcoin Dip Buyers Nibble at BTC Range Lows but Remain Risk-Off Until $90K Becomes Support

Bitcoin’s realized market cap has reached an all-time high of $872 billion, signaling significant long-term capital investment. However, market sentiment remains cautious, with both retail and institutional investors showing hesitancy to commit further capital at current price levels.

Bitcoin realized cap net position. Source: X.com

According to Glassnode, the monthly growth rate of Bitcoin’s realized cap has slowed to just 0.9%, reflecting a risk-off sentiment despite the historic milestone. The realized cap, which calculates the total value of all Bitcoin based on their last moved price, provides a clearer picture of real capital inflows. Slower growth here implies reduced market participation and fewer new investors entering the space.

Adding to the cautious tone, realized profit and loss data from Glassnode reveals a 40% drop, pointing to a wave of profit-taking and loss realization. This kind of behavior typically precedes periods of market consolidation, where price action becomes more range-bound as the market searches for its next directional move.

Bitcoin short-term holders’ price and MVRV. Source: CryptoQuant

Short-term holders (STHs) are particularly vulnerable in this environment. Data from CryptoQuant shows the short-term realized price currently sits around $91,600 — above Bitcoin’s recent trading range of $85,440 to $82,750. This indicates that many STHs are underwater, potentially increasing the risk of panic selling or profit exhaustion should prices fall further.

Moreover, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio for short-term holders remains below 1. Historically, this level has been associated with buying opportunities, but it also confirms that a significant portion of the market is currently holding Bitcoin at a loss.

Diverging Sentiment: US vs. Korean Traders

Market behavior also reveals a geographic divergence in sentiment. The Coinbase premium — which tracks the price difference between BTC on Coinbase and other exchanges — has risen recently, suggesting heightened demand from US-based investors. In contrast, the Kimchi premium, an index reflecting retail trading appetite in South Korea, declined during the recent correction, pointing to subdued retail activity.

This disparity is mirrored in Bitcoin’s price movement. Since April 11, BTC has been locked in a tight consolidation range between $85,440 and $82,750. On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin continues to find support from the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. However, on the daily chart, these same moving averages are acting as overhead resistance, suppressing bullish momentum.

Bitcoin 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Outlook: Waiting for Confirmation Above $90K

Until Bitcoin can establish firm support above $90,000 — currently the breakeven level for many short-term holders — the broader market is likely to remain risk-off. While dip buyers are active near range lows, a convincing breakout and shift in momentum are needed to reignite bullish sentiment and encourage broader participation.

For now, the Bitcoin market appears caught between cautious optimism and defensive positioning, as investors await clearer signals before making their next move.