Bitcoin Could Surge to $80,000 Amid U.S. Election Turmoil, Traders Predict

Bitcoin’s price has seen significant volatility since U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris announced her candidacy for the 2024 presidential election in July, and traders are bracing for even wilder swings as the election approaches. As of late October, Bitcoin attempted to retest its previous all-time high of $73,738, but failed to break through. Now, with the election looming, many crypto market watchers are predicting that Bitcoin could push toward $80,000 in the aftermath of the event, driven by higher volatility.

Crypto Traders Bet on Election Outcome

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi provide a window into the sentiment of crypto traders as they speculate on the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential race. According to Polymarket, nearly $3.21 billion in wagers have been placed on the election, with former President Donald Trump emerging as the favorite. As of early November, 61.1% of bets on the platform are backing Trump to win, while Vice President Harris has garnered 38.9% of the support.

Meanwhile, Kalshi, a prediction market regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), places the odds of Trump’s victory at 56.8%, with Harris trailing at 43.2%. The platform has seen nearly $235 million in trading volume around the election.

Although the accuracy of prediction markets in forecasting election results is still debated, these markets provide valuable insight into trader sentiment — especially among crypto investors, who are closely watching political developments as they impact Bitcoin's price.

Trump’s Pro-Crypto Policies Spur Market Optimism

One factor influencing Bitcoin’s price trajectory is former President Trump’s pro-crypto stance, which has helped him gain significant support among crypto traders. Trump has articulated plans to make the U.S. a global leader in Bitcoin mining, even proposing the creation of a national Bitcoin reserve. His proposal envisions the U.S. government holding 100% of the Bitcoin it acquires, a bold initiative that resonates with many Bitcoin advocates.

Trump’s appearance at the Nashville Bitcoin Conference in 2024 further cemented his standing as a crypto-friendly candidate, emphasizing his plans to foster a supportive regulatory environment for Bitcoin.

On the other hand, Kamala Harris’s crypto policy remains somewhat ambiguous. While her “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men” hints at a measured approach to the cryptocurrency space, it lacks the detailed roadmap that some in the crypto community were hoping for. As such, her stance on Bitcoin and other digital assets appears more cautious compared to Trump’s enthusiastic support.

What’s at Stake for Bitcoin?

As the election draws nearer, U.S. stock markets will close early on Election Day, as states count the votes. However, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin trade 24/7, meaning that Bitcoin’s price could see major fluctuations even after the traditional markets close. According to data from BTC derivatives markets, a Trump victory could propel Bitcoin closer to the $80,000 mark.

Derivatives Data Shows Range of $60,000–$80,000

Traders are positioning themselves for Bitcoin to trade in the $60,000 to $80,000 range in the weeks following the election. According to data from Deribit’s Bitcoin Volatility Index, volatility has been on the rise since September 26, 2024, although it hasn’t yet reached the extreme levels seen during President Joe Biden’s election exit or the U.S. market correction in August.

The $60,000 to $80,000 price range has seen the most active trading volume, with both bullish and bearish positions building up as futures contracts hit their peak open interest in this range. This suggests that many traders expect Bitcoin’s price to experience significant movement in the coming weeks, depending on the election outcome and the market's reaction.

The Bottom Line

With the U.S. presidential election just around the corner, Bitcoin’s price is set to remain volatile, with traders closely watching the political landscape for clues. A win for Trump, with his pro-crypto policies, could spark a bullish run for Bitcoin, potentially pushing its price to the $80,000 mark. However, as always with cryptocurrencies, risks remain, and unpredictable market reactions could cause even sharper swings in the coming months.