Bitcoin’s Next Bull Market Could Defy Interest Rate Expectations, Says ProCap CIO

Bitcoin’s long-held macro narrative may be shifting

For years, Bitcoin investors have largely relied on one macro assumption: falling interest rates and loose monetary policy are good for BTC, while tightening cycles suppress price growth. But that belief may be nearing its expiration date.

According to Jeff Park, Chief Investment Officer at ProCap Financial, Bitcoin’s next major bull market could emerge under conditions once considered hostile—rising U.S. interest rates.

Speaking on The Pomp Podcast with Anthony Pompliano, Park argued that accommodative monetary policy may no longer be the catalyst investors expect.

“We should be open to the reality that more accommodative policies might not actually be what takes Bitcoin into its next bull market,” Park said.

Why accommodative policy may lose its impact

Accommodative policies—such as interest rate cuts and liquidity injections—are typically deployed by the U.S. Federal Reserve to stimulate economic growth and encourage risk-taking. Historically, Bitcoin has benefited from these environments as yields on traditional assets decline.

However, Park believes that relying on easing cycles alone may be outdated thinking.

Bitcoin’s long-term strength, he argues, will be proven when it can appreciate despite higher interest rates, not because of lower ones.

The “endgame” scenario for Bitcoin

Park described Bitcoin’s ultimate validation as a scenario where its price continues to rise even as borrowing costs increase—a condition he referred to as Bitcoin’s potential “endgame.”

“The holy grail for Bitcoin is when it goes up while interest rates are going up,” he said, noting how counterintuitive this would be to traditional quantitative easing (QE) theory.

Such a shift would represent more than just price appreciation—it would challenge foundational assumptions about global finance.

Watch the full interview:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZfsLFGz4hE

Challenging the concept of the ‘risk-free rate’

If Bitcoin can outperform during periods of monetary tightening, Park believes it would undermine the very idea of a true “risk-free rate.”

In that scenario, U.S. Treasuries would no longer serve as the unquestioned benchmark for safety and yield, and the dominance of the U.S. dollar could weaken.

“The system is broken,” Park said, pointing to structural issues between the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury that make long-term pricing of national securities increasingly unstable.

Market expectations and Bitcoin’s current price

While Park’s thesis looks far ahead, market participants are already speculating on future monetary shifts. Traders on crypto prediction platform Polymarket currently assign the highest probability—around 27%—to three Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains volatile. At the time of publication, BTC is trading near $70,503, down approximately 22.5% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap.

What this means for long-term Bitcoin investors

If Bitcoin can decouple from traditional rate-sensitive assets, it may signal a maturation phase—one where BTC behaves less like a speculative trade and more like a standalone monetary asset.

Rather than depending on central bank liquidity, Bitcoin’s value proposition could increasingly rest on monetary credibility, scarcity, and systemic distrust.

Conclusion: A new macro era for Bitcoin

Jeff Park’s outlook challenges one of Bitcoin’s most entrenched narratives. If correct, the next bull market won’t wait for rate cuts or stimulus—it will emerge precisely when the old rules stop applying.

For long-term investors, this shift could redefine how Bitcoin is evaluated in global portfolios—and mark a decisive step toward its original promise as an alternative monetary system.

See all our insights: Bitcoin World News