Bitcoin Confirms Technical Bear Market, but On-Chain Data Signals Accumulation Is Heating Up

Bitcoin has officially entered a technical bear market, dropping more than 20% from its October peak near $126,000. With BTC now struggling below the $95,000 zone, surface-level sentiment looks grim — but the deeper story is unfolding on-chain, where data shows a completely different picture.

Despite the price downturn, long-term holders, whale wallets, and miner reserves are showing unmistakable signs of renewed accumulation, suggesting that the current sell-off may be more of a structural reset than a cycle-breaking collapse.

This shift marks a critical moment for the broader crypto ecosystem, especially as macro uncertainty and liquidity pressure continue shaping Bitcoin’s short-term direction.

BTC Enters a Confirmed Technical Bear Market

A “technical bear market” is triggered when an asset falls 20% or more from its recent high — and Bitcoin now fits that criteria:

• October peak: ~$126,000

• Current range: ~$94,000–$95,000

• Drawdown: ~25%

This correction officially places Bitcoin in a structural downturn, but unlike typical bear markets driven by panic or forced liquidations, this decline is being led by broader macro tightening and cyclical cooling, not chain-wide stress.

Key differences from past bear cycles:

• Liquidations are smaller compared to similar declines in 2021–2022.

• Derivatives funding rates remain mildly negative, not capitulation-level.

• Retail panic selling is present, but long-term holders are not exiting.

This points to a market that is cooling off — not breaking down.

On-Chain Data Reveals Rising Accumulation

While spot price movement suggests weakness, the blockchain is telling a very different story.

1. Long-Term Holders (LTH) Are Increasing Their Supply

LTH supply — holders who keep BTC for 155+ days — has been rising during this downturn, a strong indicator of conviction.

Historically:

• When LTH supply rises during price drops → accumulation phase

• When LTH supply falls → distribution / top formation

Right now, we are firmly in accumulation mode.

For deeper context on long-term holder behavior, see our recent analysis:

Bitcoin Holds Above $102K as Long-Term Holders Sell $4.5B

2. Exchange Reserves Are Dropping

Major centralized exchanges have recorded a net outflow over the past week.

What it means:

BTC is leaving exchanges → moving to cold storage → reduction in sell-side pressure.

This is the opposite of what usually happens during full-scale bear markets.

3. Whale Wallet Activity Shows Steady Buying

Addresses holding 100–10,000 BTC have increased their balances.

These wallets typically:

• Sell into euphoria

• Accumulate into fear

Their current behavior signals smart-money confidence in long-term upside.

4. Stablecoin Liquidity Has Stopped Declining

During last week’s risk-off mood, stablecoin supply shrank — but over the past 48 hours, inflows have stabilized.

This matters because:

Stablecoins → fresh liquidity → precursor to trend reversals.

Miner Stress Is Starting to Ease

Miners are one of the strongest leading indicators of Bitcoin cycle reversals.

Despite price pressure:

• Miner reserves have stabilized.

• Hash rate remains strong.

• No sign of miner capitulation events.

Why this is important:

Miner capitulation often marks generational bottoms.

Stability here suggests the market is not in collapse mode — the network’s core remains strong.

Market Structure Points to a Mid-Cycle Reset

Bitcoin’s current formation matches mid-cycle cooldowns seen in past years:

• Strong support emerging near $92K–$94K

• Leverage flushing out without forced liquidation spikes

• Spot demand outweighing derivatives

• Volatility compressing after sharp downside

This positioning often precedes accumulation-led stabilization phases.

What This Means for the Rest of November

With Bitcoin now officially in a technical bear market, the remainder of November is shaping into a cooling and consolidation phase, driven by structural shifts on-chain rather than aggressive selling.

1. Price Action Likely to Stabilize Into a Sideways Range

BTC is expected to hover between $92,000–$100,000 as selling pressure eases and accumulation strengthens — a typical behavior for post-drawdown months.

2. Exchange Outflows Hint at Soft Support Forming

More BTC is leaving exchanges than entering them.

This reduces immediate sell supply and provides a stabilizing base throughout November.

3. Liquidity Rotation Favors Bitcoin Over Altcoins

Market participants are shifting toward lower-risk majors:

• BTC dominance rising

• Altcoins showing weaker follow-through

• Only strong-fundamental projects holding ground

This selective environment is common during cooling phases.

4. Market Sentiment May Gradually Improve

Sentiment indicators remain fearful, but the divergence between price weakness and on-chain strength suggests an upcoming sentiment stabilization later in the month.

5. November Likely Ends With Consolidation

No major internal catalysts currently point to explosive volatility.

Most data suggests November will close as a range-bound, digestion period, setting up clearer direction for December.

Investor Takeaways

Short-Term Traders

• Expect sideways action

• Manage risk tightly

• Avoid heavy leverage in choppy ranges

Long-Term Holders

• On-chain signals remain strongly supportive

• This environment historically favors accumulation

• BTC strength is rising beneath the surface

New Entrants

• This is a high-information phase

• Price looks weak but fundamentals look strong

• Perfect time to observe how long-term market structure works

Final Verdict

Bitcoin’s entry into a technical bear market paints a dramatic picture on the surface — but the deeper chain signals reveal a market quietly rebuilding strength. Long-term holders are accumulating, whales are buying, miner pressure is controlled, and exchange supply is shrinking.

Price action may look uncertain, but the blockchain shows confidence.

For November, the story is simple:

cooling now, stabilizing next, and accumulation everywhere beneath the volatility.

See all our insights: Bitcoin World news