Bitcoin Battles Historical Bearish Trend in August as Price Dips 5%

Bitcoin Slides 5% to Kick Off a Historically Bearish August

Bitcoin has entered August with a noticeable dip, falling 5% over the weekend and reinforcing its reputation for underperformance during this month. The cryptocurrency dropped from approximately  $118,330 on Friday to $112,300 by Sunday, before rebounding to $114,800.

Analysts are now closely watching the $110,000–$112,000 support zone, which could play a pivotal role in whether Bitcoin stages a recovery or continues to correct further.

Key Support Levels and Resistance Zones in Focus

According to Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG Markets, Bitcoin's decline over the weekend tested and respected support levels tied to its previous all-time high of $112,000, calling it the “logical pullback target.”

“If risk sentiment remains stable and Bitcoin stays above $110,000, we could see a retest of the all-time high,” Sycamore noted. However, he also cautioned that significant monthly resistance looms at $125,000, and no clear catalyst is currently in sight to break above that level.

If Bitcoin fails to hold support, Sycamore warns the correction could deepen toward the 200-day moving average, currently positioned at $99,355.

Macroeconomic Headwinds Threaten Bullish Momentum

Sycamore’s outlook mirrors that of BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who on Sunday warned that macroeconomic pressures and weakening global risk appetite could drag Bitcoin back toward the $100,000 mark.

Recent developments such as disappointing U.S. job numbers and escalating tariff tensions have further dampened investor sentiment, adding to Bitcoin’s vulnerability in the short term.

Bitcoin has fallen in eight out of 12 Augusts. Source: CoinGlass

Read More: Bitcoin Battles “Death Cross” Amid Tariff Chaos – What You Need to Know This Week

August: Historically Bitcoin’s Worst Month

Data from Glassnode shows that August has consistently delivered negative returns for Bitcoin. Since 2013, the month has averaged an 11.4% loss, making it the worst-performing month of the year for BTC.

Here's a look at August's performance in recent years:

• 2024: -8.6%, dropping to just over $59,000

• 2023: Double-digit loss to $27,300

• 2022: Similar sharp decline to $19,800

If this year follows the historical pattern, Bitcoin could fall to around $105,000 before finding firmer ground.

September Outlook Also Clouded by Past Performance

While some hope remains that 2025—being a bull market year in the four-year crypto cycle—might break the bearish pattern, the data suggests otherwise. September has also been a notoriously weak month, with losses in eight of the past 12 years.

Still, the last August gain came in 2021, when Bitcoin surged 13.8%, ending the month above $47,000. Whether 2025 can echo that bullish momentum remains uncertain.

Conclusion: Can Bitcoin Defy Seasonal Weakness?

As August unfolds, Bitcoin must defend the $110,000 support level to avoid a steeper correction. While short-term sentiment is cautious, broader market cycles suggest potential for recovery later in the year.

Investors and traders should monitor:

• Macroeconomic signals

• Risk sentiment in global markets

• Technical indicators such as the 200-day moving average

The next few weeks will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin's current dip is a healthy retracement or the beginning of a deeper downturn.

Related: Bitcoin ETFs Face $812M Outflow, While Ether ETFs Snap 20-Day Inflow Streak