Samson Mow Calls 2025 Bitcoin’s ‘Hidden Bear Market,’ Predicts Decade-Long Bull Run Ahead

Bitcoin’s 2025 Performance Masks a Bear Market, Says Mow

Bitcoin may be on the verge of a historic bull run lasting well into the next decade, according to Samson Mow, founder of Bitcoin-focused infrastructure firm Jan3. Despite Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs in October, Mow argues that 2025 itself should be viewed as a bear market rather than a continuation of the prior bull cycle.

In a post on X on Friday, Mow said the past 12 months fit the characteristics of a market reset and consolidation phase.

“2025 was the bear market,” Mow wrote, adding that Bitcoin could now be entering a “decade-long bull run.”

Bitcoin analyst PlanC echoed the sentiment, suggesting that investors who remained active throughout 2025 may have already weathered the worst of the downturn.

“If you made it through 2025, you made it through the bear market,” PlanC said in a separate post.

Bitcoin On Track for a Rare Red Year

Despite briefly surging to a new all-time high of $125,100 in October, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain momentum in the final months of the year.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $87,210, down approximately 8.98% since Jan. 1, according to data from CoinMarketCap

PlanC noted that Bitcoin has never recorded two consecutive red yearly candles, making the current downtrend historically significant if it holds through year-end.

The subdued performance has also fallen well short of optimistic forecasts made earlier in the year. In October, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, and Tom Lee, chair of BitMine, both suggested Bitcoin could still reach $250,000 before year-end—targets that now appear increasingly unlikely.

Market Sentiment Remains Deep in Fear Territory

Investor sentiment has remained fragile throughout December. On Dec. 26, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 20 out of 100, extending a two-week stretch of “extreme fear” that began on Dec. 13.

The persistently low readings suggest that many market participants remain cautious, even as long-term bullish narratives continue to circulate.

Analysts Divided on Bitcoin’s Outlook for 2026

While Mow and PlanC see the groundwork for a prolonged bull market, not all analysts share that optimism.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently warned that Bitcoin could decline to $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026. Similarly, Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s director of global macro research, described 2026 as a potential “year off” for Bitcoin, with prices possibly retracing toward $65,000.

These views suggest that even if Bitcoin enters a longer-term growth phase, short- to medium-term volatility may persist.

Bullish Voices Point to Strong Fundamentals

Other industry leaders remain confident that Bitcoin’s underlying fundamentals remain intact. Phong Le, CEO of Strategy, said that Bitcoin’s core metrics have stayed strong throughout 2025, despite weakening sentiment and late-year price pressure.

Meanwhile, Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said earlier this year that 2026 is likely to be an “up year” for Bitcoin, reinforcing the idea that institutional confidence has not faded.

Conclusion: A Cycle Debate Far From Settled

The debate over whether 2025 represents a bear market, consolidation phase, or cycle peak underscores how divided the industry remains. While Samson Mow and others believe Bitcoin is setting up for a multi-year expansion, skeptics warn that further downside could still lie ahead.

What appears clear is that Bitcoin’s long-term narrative continues to attract strong conviction on both sides, setting the stage for heightened volatility—and opportunity—as the next cycle unfolds.

See all our insights: Bitcoin World News