A Key Bitcoin Trend Indicator Turns Bearish — Is the Bull Market Really Over?

Bitcoin’s 200-Day Trend Signals Weakness

A major long-term trend signal for Bitcoin has turned bearish, prompting renewed concerns that the extended bull run may have come to an end.

Well-known crypto analyst Crypto₿irb told his 700,000 followers on X that Bitcoin is now showing a “persistent trend shift,” backed by multiple technical factors including:

• A downturn in the 200-day trend line

• Increased volatility

• Volume spikes

• Time spent trading below the 200-day level

• Weakening market breadth

From his perspective, “the bull market is over,” and he expects 2026 to be a year of broader declines.

Death Cross Confirms Long-Term Pressure

The bearish outlook intensified in mid-November when Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average (MA) dipped below the 50-day MA, forming a death cross — a commonly watched signal indicating potential long-term trend deterioration.

While the 200-day MA differs from the 200-day trendline, both are used to evaluate structural market strength and often act as key support and resistance levels during major Bitcoin cycles.

Analysts Split on Whether a Bear Market Has Arrived

Not all experts agree with the idea that Bitcoin has decisively entered a bearish phase.

“Bitcoin is in a bear market” — 10x Research

Markus Thielen of 10x Research offered a clear view:

“There is no debate, Bitcoin is in a bear market.”

He added that Bitcoin is currently experiencing a bear market reversal rally, not the start of a new uptrend.

“Not a bear market yet” — Apollo Capital

Henrik Andersson, CIO at Apollo Capital, struck a more moderate tone.

He noted that the buying pressure from digital asset treasuries (DATs) that supported Bitcoin earlier in the year has cooled, but:

“That doesn’t mean we are in a bear market.”

According to Andersson, the next major directional cues will come from broader risk-asset performance, and investors will need to be far more selective moving forward.

Short-Term Momentum Shows Signs of Recovery

Despite long-term bearish signals, shorter timeframes tell a different story.

Analyst Skew commented that Bitcoin looks “a lot more constructive” on the four-hour chart:

• Momentum is shifting upward

• Buyers are attempting to regain control

• A drop below $88,000 would signal weakening momentum

The important near-term battleground sits between $90,000 and $92,000, which Skew calls a key structural zone where bulls and bears are fighting for dominance.

Bitcoin’s Current Price Action

Bitcoin briefly approached $92,000 on Coinbase earlier today but has since eased to around $91,200 at the time of writing.

The market remains in a tight range, and traders are watching closely to see whether BTC can reclaim $92,000 — or if long-term bearish indicators will continue to dictate broader direction.

Conclusion: Bear Market or Bullish Reset?

Bitcoin’s long-term trend tools — including the 200-day MA and overall structural breadth — are leaning bearish. This has prompted some analysts to declare the bull market finished.

However, others argue the evidence isn’t definitive, especially as short-term momentum shows early signs of recovery and macroeconomic factors continue to influence digital asset flows.

The next major test lies in whether BTC can hold above $90,000–$92,000 and reclaim long-term support zones.

See all our insights: Bitcoin World news