Bitcoin Eyes $150K Surge as Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ Nears Signing

Could history repeat itself? If President Donald Trump signs his anticipated “Big Beautiful Bill” on Independence Day, Bitcoin (BTC) could rocket to $150,000, according to analysts tracking historical market behavior.

Bitcoin's 2025 Bull Case: A Repeat of 2020?

Crypto traders are closely watching political developments in the U.S., as a massive new government spending package — dubbed the “Big Beautiful Bill” by former President Donald Trump — gains traction. If passed, this bill could significantly boost the U.S. national debt, historically a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin.

In late 2020, when Trump signed a COVID-19 relief bill, Bitcoin surged 38% within weeks. A similar move today would take BTC/USD from its current price of $108,979 to around $150,000 — potentially setting a new all-time high.

US national debt data (screenshot). Source: US Debt Clock

Related: Bitcoin Risks Breakdown if $108K Support Fails, Analyst Warns

Why Government Spending Matters for BTC

Spending bills typically expand national debt and liquidity, which devalues fiat currencies and drives investors toward harder assets like Bitcoin.

“To put this into perspective, at the start of 2020, total US debt stood at $23.2 trillion. This would mark a near $17 TRILLION increase in 6 years,” wrote The Kobeissi Letter.

If forecasts from Kalshi are accurate, the U.S. national debt could hit $40 trillion by the end of 2025, a record-breaking increase with major implications for risk assets.

Global M2 Liquidity Continues to Soar

Bitcoin’s price has shown a strong historical correlation with M2 money supply, a global indicator of monetary liquidity. In early July 2025, M2 reached a record $55.4 trillion.

Popular analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that M2 typically continues rising even after Bitcoin peaks, suggesting there could be more upside left in this cycle.

With institutional flows still coming into spot Bitcoin ETFs and macroeconomic pressure building, liquidity remains one of the strongest tailwinds for BTC’s price.

BTC/USD comparison. Source: Crypto Rover/X

Related: How High Can Bitcoin Go in 2025? Analysts Eye $150K, $500K, and Even $1 Million

Will Bitcoin Hit $150,000 in July?

Here’s what needs to align for a 40% BTC rally:

• Trump successfully signs the “Big Beautiful Bill”

• Markets interpret the bill as inflationary and risk-on

• Bitcoin maintains momentum above the $108K support zone

• Global liquidity (M2) continues expanding

• Spot ETF inflows remain strong or accelerate

While nothing is guaranteed, the macroeconomic setup mirrors previous bull phases, making a post-bill rally to $150K plausible — especially if historical patterns hold.

BTC/USD vs. global M2 money supply. Source: X