Bitcoin Stuck at $116K Resistance Until ‘Decisively Reclaimed,’ Warns Bitfinex

Bitcoin Struggles Below Key Resistance

Bitcoin (BTC) is facing renewed resistance at $116,000, with Bitfinex analysts warning that the level must be “decisively reclaimed” before the next leg higher.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency has struggled for momentum since peaking at an all-time high of $124,100 on August 14, and remains below the cost basis of buyers who entered in the $108,000–$116,000 range.

At the time of writing, BTC trades at $116,370, according to CoinMarketCap, after a modest rebound over the past week.

Fed Decision Looms Large

The next major catalyst may come from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement on Wednesday. Markets are pricing in a 96.1% chance of a 25 basis point cut, per the CME FedWatch Tool.

Analysts are split on how Bitcoin will react:

• Tom Lee (Fundstrat co-founder): Predicts the first rate cut of 2025 could trigger a “monster move” in Bitcoin and Ethereum over the next three months.

• Crypto analyst Ted: Expects a cut but warns BTC could still drop to $104,000, or even $92,000, before rebounding to new highs.

While rate cuts are typically bullish for risk assets, some argue the news may already be priced in, raising the risk of a short-term “sell the news” dip.

Bitcoin is up 4.34% over the past seven days. Source: CoinMarketCap

Market Sentiment: Neutral but Watching Q4

The broader crypto market remains cautious, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index posting a neutral score of 53.

However, history suggests Q4 could bring tailwinds. Since 2013, Bitcoin average Q4 return is 85.42%, according to CoinGlass, making it the strongest quarter seasonally.

Long-Term Holders Stay Confident

Bitfinex analysts noted that recent weakness has been driven mainly by short-term holders who bought during the February–May correction and exited during the September bounce.

Meanwhile, long-term holders remain confident, viewing the September 1 sell-off to $107,400 as an opportunity to accumulate.

“This dynamic suggests that investors who accumulated earlier in the year used the recent rally as a chance to take profits, creating short-term headwinds but not undermining long-term conviction,” Bitfinex wrote.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin stuck at $116K resistance after fading from $124K ATH.

• Fed decision on Wednesday could trigger major volatility.

• Analysts divided: Some expect a breakout, others warn of a dip to $92K–$104K.

• Historically, Q4 is Bitcoin strongest quarter with +85% average returns.

• Long-term holders remain confident despite near-term headwinds.