Bitcoin Bulls Eye $110K Ahead of Record $13.8B Options Expiry

Bitcoin’s bullish momentum has faced a fresh challenge as recent tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump disrupted market sentiment. With a massive $13.8 billion Bitcoin options expiry looming on May 30, the big question is: can the bulls secure $110,000 before the clock runs out?

Key Highlights

• Bitcoin bulls are aiming to push BTC above $110,000 by May 30 to capitalize on $4.8 billion in call options.

• Strong spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and weak put positioning provide bulls with an edge.

• Bears are struggling to keep up after a 25% BTC rally over the past 30 days.

• The expiry is shaping up as Bitcoin’s largest monthly options event of 2025.

Where the Options Market Stands

Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $108,300, just shy of the critical $110,000 level that could tilt the scales heavily in favor of bullish traders.

May 30 Bitcoin options open interest, USD. Source: Laevitas.ch

The open interest in Bitcoin put (sell) options stands at $6.5 billion, but notably, 95% of these positions are placed below $109,000. If Bitcoin holds near its current price, less than $350 million worth of puts will remain relevant at expiry — severely weakening the bearish case.

On the flip side, call (buy) options up to $109,000 account for $3.8 billion in open interest. However, it’s important to note that not every call option holder is necessarily betting on Bitcoin’s rise; some traders use call options as a hedge or employ strategies like the “short call” or “bull call spread” to manage risks or capture fixed-income returns.

ETF Inflows Strengthen the Bullish Case

Recent net inflows of $1.9 billion into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) between May 20 and May 22 reflect robust demand for Bitcoin at levels above $105,000. This strong institutional appetite reduces the chances of a significant price drop before the expiry.

Meanwhile, total open interest in Bitcoin futures stands at a staggering $79 billion, indicating high demand for short (sell) positions. But this strategy carries substantial risk: if Bitcoin pushes above $110,000, bears could be forced to close out their shorts, triggering additional upward pressure.

Top BTC option strategies at Deribit past two weeks. Source: Laevitas.ch

Potential Scenarios for Bitcoin Price Into Expiry

Here’s a breakdown of four possible price zones and their estimated outcomes based on current open interest imbalances (excluding complex hedging strategies):

$102,000–$105,000

• $2.75B in calls vs. $900M in puts → Net advantage: $1.85B to calls

$105,000–$107,000

• $3.3B in calls vs. $650M in puts → Net advantage: $2.65B to calls

$107,000–$110,000

• $3.7B in calls vs. $350M in puts → Net advantage: $3.35B to calls

$110,000–$114,000

• $4.8B in calls vs. $120M in puts → Net advantage: $4.7B to calls

These figures show that bulls can significantly increase their theoretical gains by pushing Bitcoin above $110,000, potentially setting the stage for a new all-time high.

The Wild Card: Macro and Political Risks

Despite the bullish setup, the ongoing tariff war and broader macroeconomic uncertainties pose risks. Heightened global tensions could increase risk aversion among investors, which may dampen demand for Bitcoin in the short term.

Ultimately, whether Bitcoin bulls can secure the $110,000 mark by May 30 will depend on their ability to maintain momentum in the face of these challenges — and whether bears can mount a last-minute defense in the futures market.