Bitcoin’s $10.5B Options Expiry Could Decide Market Direction — Can Bulls Regain Control?

The Bitcoin (BTC) market is approaching one of the most important derivatives events of the month — a $10.5 billion options expiry that could significantly impact short-term price direction.

While Bitcoin recently rebounded from local lows, derivatives data suggests bearish traders may still hold the upper hand unless bulls trigger a late breakout.

Bitcoin Attempts Recovery After Double Bottom Formation

Bitcoin climbed to an eight-day high this week after forming a double bottom near $62,500, signaling strong buyer defense at lower levels.

Despite the recovery, BTC remains roughly 21% below its level from a month ago, limiting bullish momentum heading into expiry.

At the time of analysis, Bitcoin trades near $68,000, meaning bulls require approximately a 9% rally to regain control of expiring contracts.

Options Market Breakdown: Who Holds the Advantage?

The majority of Bitcoin options activity is concentrated across three major derivatives platforms:

Deribit — 76% market share

• $4.5B call option

• $3.4B put options

OKX — 10% market share

• $610M calls

• $385M puts

CME Group — 5% market share

• $255M calls

• $287M puts

Although call options appear larger overall, deeper analysis reveals that many bullish bets were placed when Bitcoin traded above $75,000 earlier in February.

Why Put Options Currently Lead

Data shows that nearly 88% of call options on Deribit expire worthless if BTC remains below $70,000 at settlement.

After filtering unrealistic high-strike bets above $105,000, effective bullish positioning drops sharply to roughly $780 million in meaningful open interest.

Meanwhile:

• Around $1.44 billion in put options target prices below $60,000

• Another $1.15 billion in puts sit at $72,000 and above

This positioning gives bearish traders a structural advantage unless Bitcoin stages a strong rally before expiry.

Nasdaq Correlation Becomes a Key Market Driver

One of the most notable developments is Bitcoin’s 90% correlation with the Nasdaq-100 Index.

This unusually strong relationship suggests crypto sentiment is currently tied closely to technology equities and broader risk markets.

Investor focus has particularly shifted toward AI-sector performance and major earnings releases, including those from Nvidia, whose results often influence risk appetite across global markets.

If equities strengthen, Bitcoin could benefit from renewed institutional confidence.What Bulls Need to Flip the Market

For bullish traders to gain the advantage:

Bitcoin must rally roughly 9%

Price needs to move decisively above $75,000

Risk sentiment in tech markets must remain strong

A successful breakout could invalidate large portions of bearish positioning and potentially trigger short-term volatility fueled by options hedging flows.

Final Outlook: A Turning Point for Bitcoin?

Friday’s $10.5 billion options expiry represents more than a routine derivatives event — it may determine whether Bitcoin stabilizes after recent losses or continues trading under bearish pressure.

• Below $70K → Bears retain control

• $70K–$75K → Neutral battleground

• Above $75K → Momentum shifts toward bulls

With macro sentiment and equity markets heavily influencing crypto flows, Bitcoin now sits at a critical crossroads heading into expiry.

See all our insights: Bitcoin World News