Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Could Hit $250K in 2025 If Fed Shifts to Quantitative Easing

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of Maelstrom, has made an optimistic prediction for Bitcoin’s future, stating that the cryptocurrency could soar to $250,000 by the end of 2025—if the U.S. Federal Reserve pivots to quantitative easing (QE). Hayes shared his insights in an April 1 Substack post, suggesting that the major catalyst for such a price surge would be an increase in the fiat money supply as the Fed implements policies to lower interest rates and stimulate the economy.

Bitcoin’s Dependence on Fiat Supply

Hayes argues that Bitcoin’s value is largely influenced by market expectations surrounding the future supply of fiat currency. As the U.S. government injects more money into the economy, typically through bond purchases, the value of assets like Bitcoin tends to rise. According to Hayes, if the Fed shifts from quantitative tightening (QT) to QE—buying more U.S. Treasury bonds—Bitcoin's price will likely begin to climb significantly.

“If my analysis of the Fed’s major pivot from QT to QE for treasuries is correct, then Bitcoin hit a local low of $76,500 last month, and now we begin the ascent to $250,000 by year-end,” Hayes wrote in his post.

Recent Fed Moves and Potential Impact on Bitcoin

The Federal Reserve has already taken steps in this direction, reducing its Treasury runoff cap from $25 billion to $5 billion per month, effective April 1, while maintaining its mortgage-backed securities (MBS) runoff at $35 billion. While this might seem like a small change, Hayes believes it signals the beginning of a broader shift that could provide a massive boost to Bitcoin.

“The math behind this change keeps the Fed balance sheet constant, but this is essentially Treasury QE,” Hayes explained. “Once the Fed formally announces this, Bitcoin will scream higher.”

BTC projected to reach $132,000 based on M2 money supply growth. Source: Jamie Coutts

Other Analysts’ More Conservative Predictions

While Hayes envisions a dramatic rise in Bitcoin’s price, other analysts remain more conservative. Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Real Vision, believes that Bitcoin could reach around $132,000 by the end of 2025, driven by an increase in the global money supply. However, this price target is still significantly lower than Hayes’ $250,000 forecast.

Market sentiment also seems to lean toward more modest expectations. According to Polymarket, a decentralized predictions market, only 9% of traders are betting on Bitcoin hitting $250,000 by the end of 2025. In contrast, 60% of traders expect the price to reach around $110,000.

Hayes Stays Bullish Despite Market Caution

Despite the more conservative market predictions, Hayes remains steadfast in his belief that Bitcoin could achieve new heights. He’s been actively purchasing Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at various levels between $90,000 and $76,500, signaling his confidence in the market’s future trajectory.

“I still believe Bitcoin can hit $250,000 by year-end,” Hayes wrote, further emphasizing that the shift in U.S. monetary policy would lead to a significant influx of capital into the market. He also noted that such a move by the Fed would likely encourage China’s central bank, the PBOC, to halt tightening monetary policies, increasing the global money supply even further.

The Impact of Global Tariff Concerns on Bitcoin

However, Bitcoin’s path to higher prices could still be affected by broader macroeconomic factors. The cryptocurrency market remains under pressure from global tariff concerns, particularly with the upcoming tariff announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump, set for April 2. These uncertainties could impact global risk appetite and, in turn, Bitcoin’s performance in the short term.

Stella Zlatareva, dispatch editor at digital asset investment platform Nexo, commented, “Long-term positioning remains intact, but near-term momentum appears tethered to unfolding macro headlines.”

Conclusion: Bitcoin’s Future Is Tied to Macro Trends

While the future of Bitcoin remains uncertain and subject to external factors like global monetary policy and economic conditions, Arthur Hayes’ bold prediction suggests that a shift toward quantitative easing could propel Bitcoin to new all-time highs by the end of 2025.

However, with the broader market remaining more conservative, it remains to be seen whether Bitcoin can reach $250,000—or if a more modest target, such as $110,000, will prove to be more realistic. As always, investors must carefully monitor macroeconomic developments and market sentiment as they navigate the volatile world of cryptocurrency.

Source: Polymarket

For more updates on the latest Bitcoin trends and market analysis, stay tuned to trusted sources like Polymarket and Real Vision.