Arthur Hayes Cheers Tariffs: Why Bitcoin Could Thrive Amid Economic Chaos

Tariffs: Bitcoin’s Unexpected Ally

Arthur Hayes, the outspoken co-founder of BitMEX, isn’t sweating President Donald Trump’s latest tariff bombshell—he’s celebrating it. In an April 3 X post, Hayes declared, “Some of y'all are running scurred, but I LOVE TARIFFS,” framing the policy as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s next surge. As the Trump administration rolls out a 10% tariff on all countries starting April 5—spiking to 34% for China, 20% for the EU, and 24% for Japan—Hayes sees economic disruption as a golden opportunity. “Global imbalances will be corrected, and the pain papered over with printed money, which is good for BTC,” he predicted, eyeing a medium-term windfall for Bitcoin (BTC, $83,136 as of April 4).

A Perfect Storm for Bitcoin

Hayes breaks down the tariff-driven tailwinds for Bitcoin with characteristic flair. First, he points to a weakening U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). As overseas investors dump U.S. stocks and repatriate funds, the dollar takes a hit—a dynamic already in motion. On April 3, The Kobeissi Letter reported “the largest single-day point loss for the Nasdaq 100 in history,” with a 1,060-point plunge that nearly triggered circuit breakers last seen in March 2020. “This is good for BTC and gold over the medium term,” Hayes asserted, linking a softer dollar to risk-asset upside.

Bitcoin is trading at $83,150 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCap

Next, he zeroes in on China’s yuan (CNY). With a 65% effective tariff looming (34% base plus additional levies), Hayes speculates China might let the yuan slide past 8.00—a level unseen since 2023. A devalued yuan could push Chinese investors toward Bitcoin as a hedge, amplifying demand. “A weaker CNY forces wealth preservation into riskier assets,” he implied, painting a bullish scenario.

Finally, Hayes flags the Federal Reserve’s likely response. Post-tariff, the two-year Treasury yield “dumped,” signaling market bets on Fed rate cuts or even a return to quantitative easing (QE). “We need Fed easing,” he said, noting that increased liquidity tends to juice appetite for crypto. With the Nasdaq’s crash as a backdrop, Hayes sees the Fed stepping in to cushion the blow—pouring fuel on Bitcoin’s fire.

Echoes from the Crypto Crowd

Hayes isn’t alone in his optimism. Jeff Park, head of alpha strategies at Bitwise Invest, has been banging the tariff drum since February 3. “In a world of weaker dollar and lower U.S. rates, risk assets will fly through the roof beyond your wildest imagination,” Park forecasted, urging followers to “bookmark this” as Bitcoin gears up for a “violent” climb. The tariff announcement—coupled with a market rout—lends credence to their shared thesis: economic upheaval could be Bitcoin’s rocket fuel.

Pain Now, Gains Later

The immediate fallout is grim. The Nasdaq’s historic drop reflects global jitters, and a stronger dollar in the short term (DXY up 1.8% on April 3) clashes with Hayes’ medium-term view. Yet, he thrives on this chaos. Tariffs, he argues, will unravel decades of trade imbalances, forcing central banks to print money to paper over the cracks—a playbook straight out of 2008. For Bitcoin, a asset born from distrust in fiat systems, this is mana from heaven. “The pain is good for BTC,” Hayes insists, betting that inflation fears and liquidity floods will drive investors to the crypto king.

Source: Arthur Hayes

A High-Stakes Bet

Hayes’ tariff love affair is a contrarian call in a rattled market. While stocks bleed and traders brace for volatility, he’s playing the long game—envisioning a Bitcoin rally as the Fed, China, and global markets adjust. Whether this disruption delivers the “violent” upside Park predicts remains to be seen, but one thing’s clear: Hayes sees tariffs not as a threat, but as Bitcoin’s next big break. As the world watches Trump’s trade war unfold, Bitcoin bulls like Hayes are ready to ride the wave.

This rewrite sharpens Hayes’ argument into a punchy, cohesive narrative. It weaves in market context, amplifies its reasoning, and balances optimism with immediate turmoil, all while keeping it engaging and accessible. Let me know if you’d like further tweaks!