Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Could Reach $135K–$285K by 2025 Using Quantile Model

A new analysis utilizing a unique "quantile model" suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) could see its price soar to between $135,000 and $285,000 by 2025. Currently trading around $67,579, Bitcoin has recently exhibited a strong weekly return of 9.84%, breaking above a descending trendline that has been in place since March 2024, indicating a bullish outlook.

Insights from the Quantile Model

Sina, co-founder of 21st Capital, presented findings based on a quantile regression model that identifies three distinct price ranges for Bitcoin in 2025. This model classifies Bitcoin's "probability space" into three zones, reflecting varying levels of market sentiment: cold, warm, and hot.

• 1. Cold Zone: The lowest price range, defined as below the 33rd percentile, is projected to be between $55,000 and $85,000. This includes Bitcoin’s current price and is characterized as the lowest probable value for BTC. Investors are expected to build positions in anticipation of future growth, aiming for targets above $100,000.

• 2. Warm Zone: Ranging from the 33rd to the 66th percentile, this zone encompasses prices between $85,000 and $136,000. Sina notes that retail investors are likely to pay closer attention during this phase, as Bitcoin reaches new all-time highs and enters a price discovery phase.

• 3. Hot Zone: This zone, representing the 66th to 99th percentile, indicates a peak price range of $136,000 to $285,000 by the end of 2025. Sina explains that Bitcoin tends to spend about one-third of its time in each zone before transitioning, with the most volatility occurring in the hot zone. This phase is expected to feature significant profit-taking and rapid market reversals due to overleveraged positions.

Current Market Dynamics

For Bitcoin to maintain its upward momentum, analysts suggest it needs to establish support around the $68,500 level. According to IntoTheBlock, an on-chain analytics platform, this price point is historically significant, as it represents previous all-time highs from the 2021 bull market. Over 320,000 active addresses have interacted with Bitcoin around this level, with 68% of those addresses having an average entry price of $68,572.

Despite recent gains, Bitcoin experienced a daily correction of approximately 3%, dropping to $67,000 from a high of $69,555. Currently, it is finding support from the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) around the $67,000 mark. A sustained move above $68,500 could further fuel bullish momentum; however, if consolidation near the current price persists, a deeper correction may follow.

Conclusion

With Bitcoin’s potential price trajectory looking promising, the quantile model offers valuable insights into how market sentiment may shape its future. As investors keep a close eye on key price levels, the upcoming months could reveal significant developments in Bitcoin's journey toward reaching these ambitious price targets.