Analyst Benjamin Cowen Predicts Cardano (ADA) Could Experience Further Drop Against Bitcoin (BTC) Before Year-End

Prominent crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has shared his outlook for Cardano (ADA), forecasting that the digital asset may see one more decline against Bitcoin (BTC) before the end of 2024.

Cowen, who has a substantial following of over 889,000 on social media platform X, explained that ADA has historically fluctuated between 400 and 4,000 satoshis (sats) against BTC. He believes the altcoin is likely to follow a similar trend of final declines typically seen at the close of a halving year.

He emphasized two critical factors influencing the market: the still-restrictive monetary policy and the ongoing rally of the US dollar, which historically tends to negatively impact risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

“I anticipate that ADA/BTC will experience one more drop before the end of the year, followed by a potential upward movement in 2025,” Cowen noted.

He also compared current price levels with historical data, showing that in late 2020, ADA/BTC saw a low of 583 sats and a high of 995 sats, while in November 2024, the low was 470 sats, with a high so far at 903 sats.

If the period of quantitative tightening (QT) were over, Cowen believes there would be a stronger case for ADA to not see further declines. However, considering the current market conditions, including Bitcoin dominance reaching 60% and ADA/BTC dropping to 470 sats, Cowen’s multi-year target remains at 400 sats.

The analyst also shared his perspective on altcoins more broadly. Referring to the TOTAL3-USDT chart, which measures the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins, Cowen noted that altcoins, in general, are struggling to make significant gains. This suggests the potential for further weakness in the altcoin market.

“While Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) has dropped to 60%, I’m open to the possibility that we’ve seen the peak of BTC dominance. However, my main concern is that ALT/BTC pairs are still far from their historic lows,” Cowen explained. “Moreover, with QT still in play, the rising US dollar (DXY) and yields, and the typical rise of BTC dominance during December of halving years, altcoins could continue facing challenges in the near future.”

In summary, Cowen’s forecast suggests that Cardano and altcoins, in general, may face additional challenges before seeing a potential recovery in 2025, particularly in light of the broader market conditions.